CNN Analyst Comments On New Data
Non-white voters have shown a significant shift away from President Joe Biden, so much so that even mainstream media is starting to take notice. On "CNN News Central," co-anchor John Berman and CNN Senior Political Data Reporter Harry Enten discussed polling data that revealed a dramatic 20-point swing among Hispanic voters from Biden to former President Donald Trump between the 2020 and 2024 elections.
Enten highlighted the stark change in support with animated gestures, emphasizing the data on the screen. In 2020, Biden led Trump among Hispanic voters by 27 points (59% to 32%). Fast forward to the present, and Biden's lead has dwindled to just 7 points (51% to 44%). This shift has emboldened Trump to actively pursue the Hispanic vote.
Berman queried how these polling numbers are influencing the race in crucial swing states. Enten noted that Hispanics represent a significant portion of likely voters in states like Nevada (19%) and Arizona (17%). Recent polls indicate Trump leads Biden by 7 points in Nevada and 5 points in Arizona, suggesting Biden's support is waning in these key areas.
CNN Data Guru Details How Biden's Struggles With Hispanic Voters Could Sink Him In Two Key States pic.twitter.com/dHXAdEsNPC
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) June 10, 2024
According to Pew Research, Latino voters make up a substantial share of the eligible electorate in both Arizona (25%) and Nevada (22%). While CNN's focus on "likely" voters is valid, it may underestimate Trump's potential gains in these demographics.
Enten did not hold back on the implications of these trends, also pointing out a 7-point lead for Trump in Georgia, attributed to a decline in support from black voters who were part of Biden's 2020 coalition. Meanwhile, Biden's polling remains stronger in the Great Lakes region, with Trump holding a slight lead in Pennsylvania and being tied with Biden in Michigan and Wisconsin.
The primary takeaway, as Enten emphasized, is that Biden is struggling most in states with a significant Hispanic electorate compared to four years ago. This shift can be attributed to common concerns among Hispanic voters such as inflation, foreign policy, domestic issues, and immigration, which align with broader American sentiments favoring prosperity, peace, freedom, and legal immigration.
Despite these trends, the swing-state narrative has become more complex. For example, Enten's analysis mentioned Trump’s gains in Nevada and Arizona but overlooked states like New Mexico, where Latinos make up 45% of the electorate. There's a notable lack of recent polling in New Mexico, leaving questions about how these trends might play out there.
Similarly, states like Minnesota and New Hampshire, which Biden won by 7 points in 2020, are now trending towards being competitive. Trump has also made notable gains in Virginia, New Jersey, and even New York. Recent polls show Trump and Biden tied in Virginia and Biden's lead reduced to single digits in New Jersey and New York.