Report From FIU Gives New Incite
A new nationwide survey of Latino voters, conducted by Florida International University (FIU) and Adsmovil, has shed light on a significant potential shift in party loyalties among this demographic. The study, released in late 2023, indicates that about one in five Latino voters are considering changing their political affiliation, with a majority of these wavering voters considering leaving the Democratic Party. These findings come as the 2024 election crystallizes and raises questions about the future of Latino voters and their influence in American politics.
According to the survey, 19.4 percent of Latino voters are open to changing their political affiliation, either by switching parties or becoming independents. Of these voters, 61.1 percent say they would be willing to leave the Democratic Party, with a significant portion (38.1 percent) stating they would consider becoming Republicans. This is a worrisome trend for Democrats, as it suggests that their support among Latino voters, which has been eroding since the presidency of Donald Trump, continues to shrink.
Eduardo Gamarra, the co-director of FIU’s Latino Public Opinion Forum and author of the study, noted that party identification has historically been a stable factor in American politics, but that is beginning to change, particularly among Hispanic voters. This trend has been observed in recent years, with Republican candidates making gains with Latino voters in the 2020 election and maintaining those gains in the 2022 midterms. The FIU study suggests that this trend could continue in 2024.
One caveat to keep in mind is that this study is just one data point and a snapshot in time. With the election still eight months away, there is potential for dynamics to shift and change. However, considering the large, high-quality sample size of 1,221 Latino voters, the findings should not be dismissed. Additionally, this study aligns with other surveys and election results that have shown Democrats struggling to retain the support of Latino voters.
The study also highlights the potential turmoil facing Latino voters, particularly younger and more diverse constituencies, in the upcoming election. These voters are feeling pressure from all sides, and Republicans have an opportunity to take advantage of this and expand the inroads they have made since the 2020 election. This is especially significant considering that the Democratic coalition is changing, and there is uncertainty about the extent of these changes.
The study also revealed that self-described independent Latino voters who are considering a change in party affiliation are split between the Democrats and Republicans. While 9 percent of these wavering voters would become Democrats, 5.3 percent would become Republicans. This was expected, as electoral gains for Democrats would likely come from these independent voters, who have soft ties to political parties and are more open to change.
There are silver linings for Democrats in the study, as they still maintain a majority of support among Latino voters and are seen as the party that best represents this demographic. However, the study also shows that a majority of Latino voters believe the Democratic Party would handle traditional Democratic topics, such as education and healthcare, better than Republicans. But when it comes to issues like the economy, immigration, and foreign policy, voters are more evenly split between the two parties.
Despite these challenges, the survey indicates that the Republican Party can hold onto its 2020 gains among Latino voters. In fact, a third of Latino voters surveyed said they would back Trump if the election were held today, compared to a majority (53 percent) who would support Biden. This suggests that the Republican gains with Latino voters in 2020 are not just a one-time occurrence and that the party could make further strides in 2024.
Overall, the study highlights the potential for a significant shift in party loyalties among Latino voters in the upcoming election. While the Democratic Party still holds the majority of support among this demographic, their lead is not as secure as it once was. This poses a challenge for Democrats as they attempt to retain their support among Latino voters, while Republicans have an opportunity to appeal to wavering voters and expand their influence in this key demographic. However, with the election still months away, there is still potential for dynamics to shift, and it remains to be seen how these findings will play out in the 2024 election.