Selzer Is Moving On
The 2024 election season was brutal for pollsters, but no one seemed to stumble harder than J. Ann Selzer, the veteran pollster behind Iowa’s highly respected Des Moines Register Poll.
Days before the election, her final survey showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by three points—a finding that sent waves of excitement through Democratic circles, as they took it as a signal that Harris might just pull off a Midwest victory. The reality, however, was dramatically different: Trump claimed Iowa with a decisive 13-point margin, winning 56% to 43%.
In the aftermath, Selzer announced her departure from election polling, emphasizing that this decision had been made well in advance. According to her, “Over a year ago, I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities.” She added that she’d hoped her final poll would align with the actual results, calling the misfire “ironic” but taking pride in her years of work.
Iowa pollster Ann Selzer just announced she’s retiring from polling.
Once known as the “gold standard” - she gave us the Harris +3 in Iowa poll.
Trump won the state by +13 (16 points off)
Selzer allowed her TDS emotions to greatly influence her numbers this time around.
— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) November 17, 2024
Yet, questions remain. With a career-long reputation for accuracy, it’s fair to wonder whether Selzer took her foot off the gas in her last lap, as some conservative commentators have suggested. Was this an innocent error, or was it a last-minute gift to the Democrats? Commentators like Fox News’ Joe Concha and RedState’s Bonchie voiced serious doubts, calling the poll’s projections an “unbelievable outlier.” Concha pointed to an obvious disconnect between Selzer’s poll and other indicators, expressing skepticism over the poll’s reliability.
Compounding the controversy, Selzer’s poll results were leaked on social media even before they officially went live on the Register’s website. The leak reached partisan channels, and prominent Democrats, like Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, used it to energize the base in the final hours. Reports indicated that the poll results were posted on X (formerly Twitter) by an anonymous user named “IllinoisLib,” sparking a firestorm and prompting the Register’s parent company to launch an internal investigation into the breach.
BREAKING: Ann Selzer has "retired" after releasing Hoax Poll of Kamala +3% in Iowa days before election.
How much do you think Democrats paid her to release this propaganda poll? pic.twitter.com/YQNc6gxJ83
— Publius (@OcrazioCornPop) November 17, 2024
This episode highlights yet another blow to the credibility of election polling—a field that has faced intense scrutiny since widely missing the mark in 2016 and 2020. While polls are inherently “a science of estimation,” as Selzer described in her parting remarks, voters and analysts are growing wary of surveys that seem increasingly disconnected from Election Day outcomes.
This latest polling fiasco seems to have left Selzer, previously considered one of the top pollsters in the game, with a tarnished legacy.