Trump Comments On Revision Report
Let’s get into some recent surveying data that’s shaking up the 2024 presidential race. It looks like Vice President Kamala Harris, who’s been enjoying nearly a month of positive media coverage since jumping into the race, is finding her lead over former President Donald Trump in key battleground states slipping away.
Just last week, things were looking pretty good for Harris. Surveys from the Cook Political Report and the New York Times/Siena College showed her ahead of Trump in several crucial states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. But now, a new survey from Navigator Research, published on Tuesday, tells a different story—the race is essentially tied across the battleground states of Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Breaking it down, Trump has a slight edge in Arizona and Pennsylvania, leading by one and two percentage points, respectively. The other states are locked in a dead heat. The Navigator survey was conducted among 600 likely voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points, so this race is as tight as it gets.
Watch CNN’s @VanJones68 say its “scary” that Kamala Harris and President Trump are “tied” in the polls despite nonstop “positive press” from the corporate media.
The Kamala polling sugar high will be over soon. pic.twitter.com/KKWmwQgK3p
— Steve Cortes (@CortesSteve) August 19, 2024
This latest data aligns with the RealClear Polling average, which includes Nevada and Georgia, where Trump currently holds a tiny 0.2 percent lead over Harris across seven key states. Trump is leading in five of those states, with Harris holding narrow leads in only Wisconsin and Michigan. Interestingly, Harris is performing better in these battleground states than President Joe Biden was before he exited the race last month.
But despite Harris’ recent media blitz and what some have described as a “flawless” campaign run, the fact that the race is still tied has some Democrats worried. Van Jones, a CNN analyst and former Obama administration official, voiced his concerns at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago, saying, “We don’t want to be tied... We should not be tied. We want to pull ahead.”
…about 240,000/month to 170,000/month. The latter, which is also the average over the past 3 months, is plenty strong enough to keep the expansion on pace.
— Jared Bernstein (@econjared46) August 21, 2024
Even David Axelrod, a top strategist for Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns, acknowledged that while Harris is doing better than Biden was, the race is still fiercely competitive. He pointed out that if the election were held today, it could very well swing in Trump’s favor, especially since the Electoral College, rather than the popular vote, will decide the outcome.
Adding to the drama, former President Trump has been quick to seize on some bad economic news for the Harris-Biden administration. The Labor Department recently revised its job growth figures downward by a whopping 818,000 jobs for the 12-month period ending in March of this year—a 30% revision. Trump didn’t waste any time accusing the administration of "padding the numbers" to hide what he calls the “economic ruin” they’ve caused. However, economists note that such revisions are a normal part of the annual data reconciliation process.
Despite the revisions, the White House has pointed out that the overall trend remains positive, with 15 million jobs created since Biden and Harris took office.