Congressman’s Social Media Video Gets Debated Online
At Hot Air, columnist David Strom recently raised the question of whether certain pollsters are “juking” Donald Trump’s numbers to create the perception of declining Republican support heading into the next two election cycles. The concern is grounded in a pattern noted during the 2024 election cycle, when numerous media and university-affiliated polls significantly overstated Vice President Kamala Harris’ standing against Trump.
I should be working right now. But Republicans shut down Congress. So instead I’m in a pool. pic.twitter.com/S8f0rIfBEj
— Eric Swalwell (@ericswalwell) July 26, 2025
This suspicion was later confirmed by David Plouffe, a senior advisor to Harris’ campaign and former Obama campaign manager, who admitted that late-cycle public polling showed leads that the campaign itself never saw internally.
Those polls were largely conducted by left-leaning or establishment institutions, and many of them quietly shifted closer to reality in the final month before the election — a familiar pattern that allows pollsters to claim accuracy after influencing the narrative for weeks.
By contrast, private campaign pollsters consistently produce more reliable data since their work directly informs strategy and carries immediate accountability. Public polling, especially from television networks and academic institutions, does not face the same pressures, leaving more room for results shaped by methodology and partisan lean.
I should be working right now. But Republicans shut down Congress. So instead, I’m pitching for the Dublin Leprechauns. pic.twitter.com/eP5XcdrwSk
— Eric Swalwell (@ericswalwell) July 26, 2025
Current polling discrepancies are fueling renewed skepticism. While Atlas Intel — one of the most accurate pollsters in 2024 — now shows Trump with a steep approval deficit (55% disapprove, 44% approve), other reputable firms like Rasmussen, Emerson, RMG, Quantas, and Big Data Poll continue to place him within one or two points of break-even, with disapproval hovering near 50%. Gallup, which had forecast strong GOP performance heading into 2024, also reports declining Trump support, particularly among independents.
I should be working right now. But Republicans shut down Congress. So instead, I’m pumping iron at the gym. pic.twitter.com/uNRPah17wh
— Eric Swalwell (@ericswalwell) July 28, 2025
Meanwhile, Pew Research Center’s latest national survey undercuts the narrative of a Republican collapse, showing near parity between party affiliations: 46% of Americans identify with or lean Republican, compared to 45% for Democrats. In contrast, a CNN poll reports an unusually high enthusiasm gap, with 72% of Democrats expressing extreme motivation to vote in the next congressional election, compared to 50% of Republicans.