DeSantis Gets Horrible News In Latest Poll. Trump Gets The Last Laugh.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis had been gaining ground on former President Donald Trump in polls across the nation, but the most recent polls are showing a drastically different story.
The poll says the criteria were as follows: Survey conducted April 28-30, 2023, among 3,389 potential Republican primary voters, with an unweighted margin of error of +/-2 percentage points. This means that the poll is the most recent of it's kind at that time of this writing (May 3, 2023).
The results are very clear.
2024 National Republican Primary
• Trump — 56% (+34)
• DeSantis — 22%
• Pence — 7%
• Haley — 4%
• Ramaswamy — 3%
• Cheney — 2%
• T. Scott— 2%
• Noem — 1%@MorningConsult | 3,389 RV | 04/30https://t.co/dQctcc1IMp pic.twitter.com/8hHvHxnY6j— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) May 2, 2023
Trump still has a strangle hold on the Republican party, but it goes deeper than that. It is not just the party that Trump continues to reign. It's also within the voters' minds and ballots.
Polls like these have come into question during the last 2 election cycles. For example, in 2016 Hillary Clinton led every poll outside of traditionally conservative outlets. And even with some of those outlets she was projected to win by a landslide. The most famous of these being one poll where she had a 98% prediction to win rate. We all know how that election turned out. She lost.
This, of course, doesn't mean that Trump will win the nomination or the 2024 election. However, we can glean a few key points from this poll. For starters, what I've already said; Trump continues to be the largest figure in the party at this moment in time, evidenced by the 56 percent to 22 percent numbers from the poll.
Second, after Trump and DeSantis no one else is even close in terms of raw support. Mike Pence, Trump's former Vice President, and Nikki Haley come in with 7 percent and 4 percent respectively. Taking out DeSantis, this shows Trump's lead in an even larger contrast.
It's also important to note that DeSantis has not yet announced a bid for the presidency. Should he do so, these numbers could look very different. Based on this fact alone, Trump holds the lead simply because we know he is running.
It remains to be seen if this poll will prove accurate over time. These polls should all be taken with a grain of salt, especially given how 2016 and 2020 election polls turned out. As we get a better picture of the 2024 cycle, we'll find out who really rises to the top.