Polling Points to Midterm Trouble for Key Senate Seat
A new poll is raising eyebrows in both parties by suggesting that Ohio's 2026 Senate race could be far more competitive than many expected in a state that has trended increasingly Republican over the past decade.
According to a Fox News survey released Wednesday, former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown holds a surprising eight-point lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Jon Husted, 53% to 45%. The numbers stand out because they come less than two years after President Donald Trump carried Ohio by 11 percentage points in the 2024 election.
If the poll accurately reflects voter sentiment, it suggests Brown remains one of the few Democrats capable of competing statewide in a state that has largely shifted away from the party at the federal level.
Brown's strength appears to be coming from both strong Democratic support and crossover appeal. The poll found that he retains 98% support among Democrats while also attracting backing from some Republicans and independents. According to the survey, 31% of self-described non-MAGA Republicans support Brown, along with 13% of Republican voters overall.
Husted, meanwhile, appears to be facing challenges consolidating his own party. While he receives support from 86% of Republicans, that figure trails Brown's near-unanimous backing among Democrats.
The poll also points to broader political headwinds facing Republicans in Ohio at the moment. Fifty-seven percent of respondents reported an unfavorable view of Trump, while 42% viewed him favorably. Husted's numbers closely mirror those ratings, with 50% viewing him unfavorably and 41% favorably.
Brown enjoys a stronger image among voters, posting a 53% favorable rating against a 44% unfavorable rating.
One of the more revealing findings involves Husted's relationship with Trump. Nearly half of respondents—46%—said they were concerned that Husted is too closely aligned with the president. Notably, that concern extends beyond Democrats and independents. The poll found that 10% of voters currently supporting Husted also expressed unease about his connection to Trump.
The race itself is unusual because it is a special election. Husted was appointed by Gov. Mike DeWine to replace JD Vance after Vance became vice president. The winner in 2026 will serve the remainder of the term and then face voters again in 2028 for a full six-year term.
The Senate contest is not the only statewide race drawing attention.
The same Fox News survey found an extremely tight governor's race, with Democrat Amy Acton holding a narrow 50% to 49% advantage over Republican Vivek Ramaswamy. Despite endorsements from Trump, Elon Musk, and the Ohio Republican Party, Ramaswamy faces a highly competitive environment according to the poll.
Interestingly, a segment of voters appears willing to split their tickets. Fourteen percent of voters backing Brown for Senate also support Ramaswamy for governor, suggesting that candidate-specific factors may be outweighing traditional party loyalties for some Ohio voters.
Republicans remain confident they can turn things around. Conservative groups have already rallied behind Husted, with the Sentinel Action Fund endorsing him earlier this year and praising his support for Trump's agenda.
Still, the poll highlights a potential enthusiasm gap. Fox News found that Democrats currently hold about a six-point advantage over Republicans when it comes to voters who describe themselves as highly motivated to participate in the midterm election.